Wizards of the Coast’s Digital Profit Chase Could Open the Gates to Rival Powers

By chasing digital profits in the wake of the success of Baldur’s Gate III, is Wizards of the Coast opening the market for competitors looking to dethrone the king of TTRPGs?

Dungeons & Dragons, the once venerable titan of tabletop role-playing games, has embarked on a journey into the digital realm as showcased in the recent D&D Direct event. In fact, CEO of Hasbro Chris Cocks recently stated on CNBC that the company was going all in on digital, and the following quote (not by Cocks) during this year’s D&D direct took the sentiment even further:

We’re starting off on PC, but we want to go everywhere because we want to connect players on mobile, console, and maybe even your fridge.

That statement might be well-meaning, but it does come off a bit tone-deaf. Also, it might not be well-meaning. It might just mean that Hasbro wants to sell you microtransactions on your fridge, but why would they put that in the video?

By going digital Hasbro is looking to distance itself from the company that was once its main competitor, Mattel, whose stock has more than halved since its all-time high in 2013, and has not seen much growth since 2020. Hasbro stock prices have also been sliding since their all-time high in 2019, but is hoping that transitioning from a toy company to a gaming company, or even a tech company might turn that around.

By selling enough monthly subscriptions to D&D Beyond and Project Sigil and microtransactions, the company might try to position itself as a Netflix or Spotify of TTRPGs, effectively using the subscription model to keep users within their own ecosystem. This paired with the fact that there allegedly won’t ever be a new edition of D&D, only updates to the current one, and the whole thing starts smelling like Enshittification is about to happen.

This shift to digital comes with a set of risks and consequences, including opening doors for emerging competitors who adhere more closely to the traditional pen-and-paper format, while also adding a range of digital games to their list of competitors. Players who prefer traditional pen and paper are likely to switch over to competing systems should D&D abandon physical books altogether, while players who prefer digital might choose to play Baldur’s Gate III, World of Warcraft, or Elden Ring instead.

Chasing Profits

Wizards of the Coast’s move towards digitizing D&D does not exist in a vacuum. The overwhelming success of video games like Baldur’s Gate 3, which brings the D&D universe, or rather the Forgotten Realms, to life in a digital format, has set a high bar for engaging audiences in virtual fantasy worlds. This game, developed by Larian Studios, not only captured the essence of D&D in a video game format but also expanded its reach to an audience that might not engage with traditional tabletop games.

In the wake of Baldur’s Gate 3‘s success, WOTC appears to be in a race to not only catch up with but also harness the capabilities of digital platforms to recreate the tabletop experience in a new medium.

However, this rush to digitize has led to some strategic missteps. Many players have noted that in its bid to emulate the success of digital RPGs, WOTC may be overlooking what makes tabletop D&D unique. The tactile feel, the social interaction, and the imaginative demands of traditional D&D are hard to replicate in a digital format. Sure, Virtual Tabletops are useful, but Project Sigil seems to want to be more than just a VTT. As such, WOTC finds itself in a precarious position of chasing the digital tail of its own licensed properties, potentially at the expense of the core attributes that have defined D&D for decades.

Project Sigil is far from Hasbro’s only egg in its digital bucket and has already invested over $1 billion (!!!) into around 40 video games that are currently in production. “We are aggressively investing in that space, seeking the best partners in the world to work with on interesting experiences on every platform, in every genre,” Eugene Evans, Wizards of the Coast’s senior vice president of digital strategy and licensing, told Gamefile.news earlier this year.

Despite Wizards of the Coast’s (WOTC) aggressive pivot towards digital platforms for Dungeons & Dragons, it’s noteworthy that WOTC itself has not directly developed any of the franchise’s successful video games. Instead, acclaimed titles such as the Baldur’s Gate and Icewind Dale series along with Planescape: Torment, developed by Black Isle Studios and later by Larian Studios for Baldur’s Gate 3, have been crafted by external companies with expertise in video game development. This outsourcing has yielded some of the most celebrated RPGs in the video game industry, underscoring an important insight: truly memorable and successful video games are often the result of creative passion rather than a mere pursuit of profits.

D&D Direct heavily emphasized well-known characters like Karlach and Astarion from Baldur’s Gate 3, Drizzt Do’Urden, and even Optimus Prime showcasing their integration into Project Sigil. This focus on well-known characters aligns with the broader narrative that Wizards of the Coast is heavily franchising the D&D universe.

Given that Project Sigil features both simple tokens and more detailed miniatures, it’s reasonable to speculate that while tokens might be available for free or at a lower cost, WOTC is positioning the detailed miniatures as premium, purchasable content. This approach not only taps into the video game industry’s lucrative strategies of selling digital items but also indicates a significant shift in how D&D could be monetized moving forward. Lock users in with the subscription, sell microtransactions.

As Wizards of the Coast adopts strategies from the video game industry, such as premium digital content and microtransactions within Project Sigil and their lineup of upcoming games, Hasbro is entering a new competitive landscape traditionally dominated by established video games like Baldur’s Gate 3, World of Warcraft, Cyberpunk 2077, The Witcher and Elden Ring to name a few. This transition into a digital gaming company exposes WOTC to a broader spectrum of competitors, where players have well-established alternatives that offer rich gaming experiences and developed community engagement.

The pivot could influence players to consider other gaming options available on platforms like Steam, which offers a vast selection of games across various genres. The presence of alternative gaming choices might lead players to assess the value of investing in Project Sigil’s premium content. Why spend money on a digital miniature when you can use that money on a World of Warcraft subscription, the new Elden Ring DLC, or the countless other options available with just a click of the mouse?

Conversely, the traditional segment of D&D’s audience, those who prefer pen-and-paper gameplay, may view WOTC’s digital shift with skepticism. As WOTC integrates more video game-like features into Project Sigil and emphasizes digital products, there is a risk that these traditional players might feel alienated. Concerns that WOTC may eventually scale back or cease the publication of physical books and production of tangible game pieces could deter this audience from engaging with the new digital offerings.

Opening the Gates

The timing of WOTC’s digital pivot is particularly critical as it coincides with a surge in interest in traditional RPG formats, as evidenced by the monumental success of Brandon Sanderson’s Cosmere RPG Kickstarter and the rising popularity of Shadowdark, which won Best Game, Best Rules, Best Design and Product of the Year at the Ennies this year.

The success of Cosmere, which massively exceeded its funding goals, and Shadowdark with its Old-School esthetics and feel, signals a robust market demand for rich, narrative-driven RPG experiences—a demand that WOTC’s digital-first strategy might fail to meet.

Just days after the D&D Direct event, the Cosmere RPG’s Kickstarter campaign concluded, amassing over $15 million from more than 54,000 backers. This overwhelming response underscores a potent interest in expansive, story-rich RPGs that promise both novel content and a return to form in gameplay. The timing of these events is not merely coincidental but indicative of a broader trend where potential players seem to diverge towards offerings that preserve the traditional elements of RPGs.

The RPG market is thus at a crossroads. WOTC’s shift towards digital might inadvertently catalyze a splintering of the market, where new and existing competitors can carve out niches by catering to those who prefer the analog and narrative depth of traditional RPGs. This could reshape the competitive landscape, positioning companies like Paizo, Brotherwise Games, The Arcane Library, and Kobold Press as formidable contenders.